This year's draft has been one of the most challenging in years for experts to predict, with both the even spread of talent and the distribution of picks in the top 10 making it tough.

Here is how AFL draft expert Callum Twomey sees the Bombers picks unfolding.

Please note Essendon’s picks on the night are likely to change when the bids come in for the Academy players. 

Pick Five (originally pick four)

AARON FRANCIS
 10/8/97, 191cm, 86kg
 West Adelaide

Francis was tipped as a contender for the first selection early in the year, but his form later in the season saw him drop in the eyes of some recruiters. The powerful defender is able to control games as a third tall, but in his stints up forward and in the midfield he has also been able to have a big say on games. The question is his endurance and whether he will be able to play the similar third tall role at AFL level, but clubs know his innate competitiveness will hold him in good stead. Essendon has liked him for some time and Francis is a Bombers supporter who has made it clear he wants to head to Tullamarine.

If not him? The Bombers have a number of options here. Sam Weideman, Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay could be in the mix as talls, while Clayton Oliver and Wayne Milera are also possibilities. 

Pick Six (originally pick five)

DARCY PARISH
 25/7/97, 181cm, 73kg 
Geelong Falcons

The midfielder couldn't have done any more over two ultra-impressive seasons. He is a back-to-back under-18 All Australian, a member of the NAB AFL Academy and has been exceptional in nearly every important game he's played. Parish has dash and skill and is always on the move. He might look like an outside midfielder because of his run and flash, but he works brilliantly at the stoppages and fights above his weight. Towards the end of the season he also showed his overhead marking was developing nicely, and he's a steady kick at goal on the run. His size might see clubs place others ahead of him, but he has achieved more at under-18 level than any other midfielder in this draft. Dyson Heppell aside, Essendon's midfield stocks are quite bare beyond its veterans. Parish would be a smart choice.

If not him? The Bombers have said they will be picking the best players with their first two choices and then go for needs with their second-round picks. The aforementioned names should make up the Dons' duo.  

Pick 28 (originally pick 24)

RHYS MATHIESON
10/1/97, 185cm, 79kg
 Geelong Falcons

A tough, hard inside midfielder who does the same things every week: fights for the ball, wins the clearances and imposes himself on games. Mathieson has had a brilliant couple of years, stepping up with each level he's played and showing he can find the ball. The back-to-back All Australian averaged 26 disposals and seven clearances in 12 games for the Geelong Falcons, he's dangerous overhead and likes to push forward to kick a goal. The Bombers showed this season they need inside ball-winners coming through.

If not him? What they get with selections No.4 and 5 may dictate the Bombers' second-round choices. But names like Ben McKay, Riley Bonner and Brayden Fiorini will be in the mix.  

Pick 29 (originally pick 25)

MASON REDMAN
26/8/97, 187cm, 76kg
 Glenelg

 

Redman is a classy medium forward with pace, skills and bounce. His ability overhead and smarts around goal make him a dangerous forward. Redman has a mix of traits that will see him play all over the ground, and he can win his own ball but also deliver it well. He will continue to develop his frame, but is seen as one of South Australia's most exciting players and one who is likely to be taken in the second round of the draft.


If not him? The Bombers need more speed, which might bring Alex Morgan into the equation. Daniel Rioli, if available, will also surely be very, very closely considered here. Essendon could do with a crafty small forward like him.