THE BACKGROUND

There might be games during an AFL season which have more at stake in terms of the ladder. But there’s never an occasion outside finals bigger for Essendon than ANZAC Day.

Since the first of these annual big events in 1995 drew nearly 95,000 people to witness an epic draw between the Bombers and Collingwood, it’s been the showpiece game on the home and away calendar, and 2018 will be no different.

Bragging rights currently stand with the Magpies at 13-9, but last year Essendon took the honours with an 18-point win. And this season’s clash brings together two sides coming off their best victories to date, Essendon upsetting the previously undefeated Port Adelaide, and Collingwood beating the Crows on their own patch.

Against the Power, Essendon rediscovered its pressure game and with a score of 16.10 (106) getting better reward for its forward thrusts.

The Bombers also looked more settled in defence with the return to the backline of All-Australian defender Cale Hooker, Jake Stringer playing more of a forward role with an immediate impact, he and James Stewart combining for seven goals. Debutant Matt Guelfi also made an important difference to the midfield.

It’s a formula Essendon will be loath to tinker with too much for now, victory in this huge game set to tip the win-loss ratio into the black and put the Bombers on the cusp of the top eight.

THE BOMBERS

Essendon responded in fine style to a week of soul-searching. Now, with a 10-day break between the Port Adelaide win and Anzac Day, it’s been about continuing to build that confidence.

The wins in round four came in areas other than the scoreboard, too. Big-bodied midfielder David Myers rebounded from a poor game with one of the best of his career, helping win the on-ball battle. Stringer’s four goals was easily his best return in red-and-black.

Late inclusion Michael Hartley played a pivotal defensive role, he and Hooker allowing Michael Hurley to become a more creative force. Small forward Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti rediscovered his zest for the chase and tackle. And skipper Dyson Heppell and Zach Merrett played easily their best games of the season.

That pair, Devon Smith, David Zaharakis, Brendon Goddard, Myers, Guelfi and co. will all have to be at the peak of their performance this week as well, because while Collingwood may have had its issues making the most of its opportunities, the Pies rarely have any problems winning enough of the ball.

The Pies lead the competition for disposals thus far. It means the Dons can’t afford to rely on the midfield group to rack up the numbers. The smaller defenders and forwards, even the talls to a degree, will all have to win their share of possession and support teammates outside their regular zones.

THE OPPOSITION

Collingwood may share a 2-2 record with Essendon after four games, but really it was only the Magpies’ first-up effort against Hawthorn which was underwhelming.

They pushed GWS all the way in round two, kicked 10 straight goals to take care of Carlton, and saved their best for last week, a very impressive eight-goal win over Adelaide on the road.

The Pies looked a far more dangerous side with quicker, cleaner delivery inside 50, and that came via an audacious handball game, Collingwood’s mids and half-backs linking up brilliantly through the centre with run and quick hands, time and again catching the Crows out as a result.

Collingwood won the hard-ball game handsomely, too, finishing with 23 more clearance wins than the Crows, and 36 more contested possessions, Steele Sidebottom continuing his brilliant season with a 43-possession game, Adam Treloar prolific, and ruckman Brodie Grundy a massive influence, not only winning the hit-outs but having an amazing (for a ruckman) possession tally of 33.

Draftee Jaidyn Stephenson’s five-goal return may also be all the evidence Magpie coach Nathan Buckley needs to go again with a smaller forward set-up than that with which he started the season.

THE TEAMS

A big blow for the Bombers selection-wise this week, with key small forward Orazio Fantasia out of the line-up with groin soreness, replaced in the 22 by Jackson Merrett, who hasn’t played senior football since the final round of 2016, but has been in good VFL form, booting five goals in the reserves’ round one win over Frankston.

Collingwood has made no changes.

THE STATS

Essendon won both the contested ball and clearance categories last week for the first time this season, a handy improvement given Collingwood is ranked No.2 in the competition currently in both categories.

The Bombers are faring well converting their stoppage wins to scores, their 28 per cent the third-best in the AFL at the moment. Collingwood’s 23 more clearance wins against Adelaide, meanwhile, was its best return in any game since 2016, making this area crucial on Wednesday.

Essendon is ranked No.1 for retention of kicks inside 50 after four games. They haven’t to date been as efficient with those scoring opportunities, ranked fifth for goals from forward entries, but the win over Port saw a handy increase in those numbers with a conversion rate of 61.5 per cent from a healthy 57 inside 50s.

Collingwood’s use of handball in the win over Adelaide reinforced its standing as the “least-kicking” team in the AFL, the Magpies ranked last for kick-to-handball ratio.

THE PLAN

Essendon must at least break even midfield against a roll call of prolific ball-winners led by Sidebottom, Treloar and skipper Scott Pendlebury.

To do so, it not only needs the likes of Zach Merrett, Heppell, Zaharakis, Darcy Parish, David Myers and Matt Guelfi firing, but a big game from ruckman Tom Bellchambers, who was a big improver last week, albeit against part-time rucks in Dougal Howard and Charlie Dixon.

That will be easier said than done this week against arguably the AFL’s most in-form ruck in Grundy, who is not only winning the hit-outs, but picking up possession numbers more akin to a ground-level player and also creeping forward to kick goals. A strong performance from Bellchambers will go a long way towards winning Essendon this game.

The Dons will have to be mindful of the different look Collingwood’s forward set-up has had in recent weeks, with a regular rotation of midfielders through the scoring zone. But there’s an also an opportunity to exploit the Pies’ forwards defensively, Nathan Buckley’s team not noted for its forward pressure.

To that end, Michael Hurley, Adam Saad and perhaps Andy McGrath have big roles to play in this game.

THE RESULT

This is a big game for both sides for longer-term reasons than just the occasion. But the Dons might have turned an important corner last week with braver decisions on the placement of personnel having immediate impact, and ominously, Joe Daniher up forward starting to regain some serious touch towards the end of the win over Port Adelaide. This is the perfect stage on which to turn that promise into some real momentum.

You can read all Rohan Connolly’s work at Footyology and subscribe to Footyology TV at YouTube.