THE BACKGROUND

With only six rounds of the premiership season remaining, finals for Essendon remain a tantalising but still distant light on the horizon.

With four wins from the past five games, the sole defeat by a slender margin, the Bombers know their best is good enough. It’s recovering the ground lost in a poor start to the season which is the biggest challenge.

Geelong (currently occupying eighth spot), Hawthorn and North Melbourne are a game ahead, all with a substantially healthier percentage. The Dons will be relying not only on their own efforts, but the stumbles of others if they are to make it.

The good news is that Essendon continues to get the job done regardless, and in a variety of circumstances. Last week, after a sloppy start against Gold Coast, a vastly-improved second half saw the Bombers emerge 44-point winners, their fourth win from five on the road this season.

This Saturday, the challenge is Fremantle. And while this week it’s on home turf, the unpredictable Dockers are a team never to be taken lightly.

Out of finals contention and without the critically important Nat Fyfe and Aaron Sandilands, Freo last week produced arguably its best win of the season against Port Adelaide.

And while the Dockers have mostly stunk it up on the road this year with a miserable 1-6 record, the solitary victory did come at the same venue as Saturday’s game, their second victory in their last three starts under the roof.

Essendon nonetheless deservedly starts a very warm favourite, for this game, another good opportunity not only to stay in touch with the top eight, but bridge the considerable percentage between it and those sides immediately above them.

THE BOMBERS

The glass half-empty attitude to last week’s performance would be to dwell on a victory which might have been a lot bigger but for that tardy start and some inaccurate kicking.

The more positive view is that rather than accept game-long mediocrity, Essendon worked hard to shrug off its apparent early stupor and was playing good football by the end, a nine-goals-to-two second half confirming that superiority.

That included four goals in the third term, just the third time all season the Bombers have won that stanza.

As has been the case for most of the past two months, the Dons’ senior midfielders led the way, skipper Dyson Heppell, Zach Merrett and Devon Smith all outstanding around the contest, while Kyle Langford, Andrew McGrath and David Myers continue to give the on-ball group a depth it sadly lacked early in the season.  

Cale Hooker’s return to defence has allowed Michael Hurley to play a more positive, attacking role and Mark Baguley’s shift to the forward line to play a defensive forward role has proved one of coach John Worsfold’s most inspired gambits of the season, Baguley’s three goals against the Suns his second three-goal haul this year.

This is a side looking more settled in all parts of the ground, the defence made of sturdier stuff, the forward set-up more productive, and both aided greatly by a midfield which is now achieving the right balance of defensive work ethic with offensive run.

THE OPPOSITION

Who can get an accurate read on Fremantle this season? The Dockers have played some appalling football with most of their top talent on the park, and some of their best with stars missing.

They’ve looked a far better team at home, but turned in probably their worst performance of the season (three weeks ago against Brisbane) there. Away from Optus Stadium they’ve been ritually thumped, but in their last visit to Victoria piled on 12 goals to nothing in a brilliant first half against Carlton.

And last week against Port Adelaide, without Fyfe and Sandilands, the Dockers upset a team which had been cruising with seven wins from its previous eight games. Just which version of Fremantle will turn up this week?

Last Sunday’s model stuck to its task manfully after Port had failed to capitalise on some early territorial dominance.

Sean Darcy managed to break even in the ruck after the Power lost Paddy Ryder before half-time, but faces a huge test on Saturday against the in-form Tom Bellchambers. But Lachie Neale, David Mundy and Ed Langdon all picked up the extra workload left by Fyfe’s absence, Luke Ryan also impressive across half-back.

THE TEAMS

Essendon has two big inclusions this week in valuable midfield runner David Zaharakis, absent since injuring his shoulder early in the Dons’ round 11 loss to Richmond, and small forward Orazio Fantasia, who has finally recovered from an adductor injury after being a late withdrawal from the selected line-up the past two games.

There’s an important loss, too, however, running defender Conor McKenna out with a groin injury, while Jake Long, who was Fantasia’s late replacement last week, has been omitted.

Fremantle has lost an important player to injury, experienced midfielder Stephen Hill out with a quad strain, while Ryan Nyhuis was suspended for three games for a sling tackle on Port Adelaide’s Robbie Gray. The Dockers have promoted Darcy Tucker and Taylin Duman to replace the pair.

THE STATS

Essendon is winning plenty of the football, its 424 disposals against Gold Coast last week its highest tally of the season, and a massive 116 more than the Suns, their biggest advantage over any opponent since round nine last year.

That is a particular concern for Fremantle this week, the Dockers losing the disposal count across the season by an average of 21, resulting in a lowly differential ranking of 16^th.

Essendon’s improvement in the hard-ball game continues also. The Bombers’ 159 contested possessions last week was also the best figure of the season, and after another comfortable win around the stoppages, the Dons now rank second in the AFL on the clearance differentials.

And a better-functioning forward line is exemplified by an average 12 marks per game inside its forward 50, ranked third in the competition.

While third quarters have been problematic all season, the Dons’ starts haven’t been. Their average 24 points per first term is good enough for a ranking of equal-second.

Fremantle has had plenty of problems lately keeping the ball in its scoring zone. Over the past four weeks, the Dockers have retained possession from just 35 per cent of their kicks into the forward 50, ranked last.

THE PLAN

Essendon can seize the initiative on Saturday from where it all starts, the centre bounces, which often loom larger on the shorter dimensions of Etihad Stadium.

Bellchambers has had one of his best seasons, and with Sandilands still on the absentee list for Fremantle, the big Bomber has a golden opportunity to consistently give his ground-level cohorts first use of the ball.

Bomber key backmen Hurley and Hooker will be looking to generate plenty of rebound along with Adam Saad and Brendon Goddard given Fremantle’s lack of noteworthy key forwards.

With Zaharakis back in the mix, Essendon has the on-ball numbers to really test the Dockers’ midfield depth, and with Baguley and Mitch Brown having added a more blue-collar defensive streak in attack, the Dons will be looking to lock the ball inside 50 for long periods.

THE RESULT

While it can’t afford to take the opponent for granted, Essendon has another great opportunity here to make its percentage more competitive, provided it can find the intensity early enough to take away the visitors’ self-belief and faith in being able to pull off what would be a big upset.

You can read all Rohan Connolly’s work at Footyology and subscribe to Footyology TV at YouTube.