THE BACKGROUND

Nine wins from the past 12 games would suggest that Essendon is one of the best teams in the AFL competition. And since late May, it has been.

It’s the eight-game period before then which has left the Bombers chasing tail as far as a potential finals appearance is concerned. But whether that is realised or not, there’s still a sizeable point the Dons could make in a big Friday night clash against Richmond at the MCG.

Essendon has shown some genuine consistency for three months now, and even in two defeats at the hands of Collingwood and Hawthorn was still a genuine winning chance late in the final quarter.

That, however, couldn’t be said of the round 11 loss to Richmond, a night when Essendon was ruthlessly put to the sword by 71 points, the Tigers’ seventh straight win over the Bombers, who suffered their heaviest defeat since 2016, managing only six goals, and just two after half-time.

The Bombers have become a more cohesive and resilient outfit since then, but need to prove that against the very best the AFL has to offer. A win may not necessarily morph into a finals position, but it would at least send a strong message to look out for the Dons in 2019.

Richmond, meanwhile, has been coasting comfortably along on top of the ladder, its top two spot assured and with it the prospect of two home finals en route to another grand final appearance on its own turf.

The Tigers haven’t necessarily been at 100 per cent for a few weeks, a few injuries beginning to bite, which, given wins nonetheless over quality opposition in Collingwood and Geelong followed by a 74-point mauling of Gold Coast last Saturday, gives you some idea how good that best is.

Richmond has won seven of its past eight games, and with its spot in September safe, there’s plenty of reasons the Tigers can afford to drop one of their remaining two games. That said, this is a team which, having discovered a very successful formula, has shown absolutely no sign of becoming complacent.

THE BOMBERS

One of the hallmarks of Essendon’s resurgence over the last two-thirds of this season has been a much more resilient streak.

That has come to the fore in earlier victories in which poor first half form was turned around into something far more productive. Against St Kilda last week, it was apparent in the Dons’ capacity to hang tough despite having no rotations available off the bench thanks to injuries.

With Brendon Goddard, Adam Saad, Cale Hooker and Orazio Fantasia all out of action, the Bombers could still have surrendered a seven-goals-plus three-quarter time lead due to sheer fatigue. In the end, despite finishing with just 51 rotations for the game to St Kilda’s 90, Essendon was only outscored by two points in the final term.

The Dons were able to remain resolute in defence despite the losses of Goddard and Saad, Conor McKenna in particular rising to the challenge, Andy McGrath played one of his best games of the season, while Zach Merrett, David Myers and Dyson Heppell continued their outstanding midfield form.

It is the forward set-up which has been as impressive as any part of the ground in recent weeks, though, the Dons managing their third tally of 100-plus points in a row after having only topped the ton twice in the first 17 games.

Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti has been pivotal to that improvement with his forward pressure, and against the Saints, his goalscoring capacity, five goals a career high. The electrifying Bomber will be a key player again if the Dons are to upset the Tigers.

THE OPPOSITION

Richmond’s modus operandi is well-known by now, consisting of fierce pressure on the opposition ball-carrier, great positioning behind the ball, and the tremendous work rate of its running brigade, who cover enormous territory both defensively and on transition into attack.

The Tigers have the stingiest defence in the AFL, currently conceding just 70 points per game, and the second-most prolific attack, averaging 98 points per game.

Quite a few of Richmond’s best will be absent for this game, but the depth and evenness across the senior list at Punt Road is impressive, and the replacements contain some very handy AFL footballers.

The Tigers have continued to develop their younger players impressively, too, Jayden Short a tremendously composed and creative running defender with a booming, penetrating kick, while draftee Jack Higgins has looked comfortable indeed at senior level.

Just how Richmond approaches this game will be interesting in itself. The Tigers have ground out some hard-fought wins while a little below their best, and had a relative stroll in the park last weekend on the Gold Coast. A top two spot, double chance and first two finals at home are assured. Will the competitive fires be burning quite as fiercely as usual?

THE TEAMS

Two changes for Essendon this week, perhaps something of a surprise given the casualty toll coming out of last week’s win against St Kilda.

Orazio Fantasia is a big loss, sidelined with a hamstring injury, while Ben McNeice has been sidelined by a minor knee injury. Experienced defender Matt Dea is back in the line-up after recovering from concussion, as is Matt Guelfi, who has recovered from illness.

Richmond has lost four premiership players to injury – skipper Trent Cotchin, Dion Prestia, David Astbury and Kane Lambert – with Ivan Soldo omitted. No.1 ruckman Toby Nankervis returns for the Tigers, along with Reece Conca, Sam Lloyd, Liam Baker and Ryan Garthwaite.

THE STATS

Essendon’s in-close game remains strong, the Bombers ranked third on both the clearance and tackle differentials and sixth for contested ball.

Richmond, in contrast, is last on the clearance count, but such is the pressure the Tigers are able to apply that they consistently win the ball back even after conceding the first possession from stoppages.

It’s both forcing and defending turnovers that is Richmond’s specialty. The Tigers score more points from intercepts than any other team, and those scores account for 67 per cent of their total score. They rank second for fewest turnovers conceded, and have fewer points scored against them from turnovers than any rival.

But after struggling early in the season with exerting enough pressure, Essendon has also become an effective turnover team, the Bombers now ranked fifth for percentage of scores from possessions gained, and since round eight, winning the time in forward half differential by four minutes and 32 seconds for a ranking of fourth.

Converting stoppage wins to scoreboard returns is also a strength, the Dons currently ranked fifth in that statistic.

THE PLAN

Essendon will have learned plenty from the “Dreamtime” disaster against Richmond, when the Dons struggled to work the ball out of their defensive 50 and consistently gave possession back to the Tigers in dangerous territory.

Teams which have beaten or at least pushed Richmond this season have used the ball more frequently and efficiently by foot, particularly out of defence, spotting up free targets and avoiding being pressured into over-handballing.

But the Bombers’ big opportunity this time is through simple weight of possession and scoring opportunity.

The Tigers are without three important parts of the most important part of the ground in Cotchin, Prestia and Lambert.

At the same time, Essendon’s midfield as a group is in better form and, via the recent form of Myers and Kyle Langford, is also batting a lot deeper than it was even in the round 11 bout against Richmond, a game in which the Dons also lost an important runner in David Zaharakis early.

Given sufficient opportunity, there is also now a forward structure looking more capable of stretching Richmond’s defence for mobility and troubling the Tigers with a greater spread of goalkicking options.

THE RESULT

Richmond is a proven powerhouse, but Essendon might have got the Tigers at the right time. It has a perfect opportunity to both stay alive in the finals race and at the same time demonstrate that it is now capable of matching it with anyone in the competition.

You can read all Rohan Connolly’s work at Footyology and subscribe to Footyology TV at YouTube.