We made it! There were some anxious moments along the way, but Essendon goes into the final round of the season knowing it will be playing finals for a second time in the past three years.

This time, there’s an extra element of intrigue, too, given the Bombers may very well be suiting up against the same opponent in an elimination final a couple of weeks from now.

That doesn’t make Friday night’s big game against Collingwood any less important, however. It’s on the nationally televised stage. It’s important for confidence. And it once again tests Essendon’s powers of resilience given half-a-dozen changes to last week’s 22, only one of them unforced.

Essendon and Collingwood turned on a classic back in round six on Anzac Day, the Dons just falling short. How do they get the result this time? By finding the answers to these five key questions.

1. How do we treat this game given we know we’ll be playing an elimination final, and quite possibly against the same opponent?

Never flirt with form is one of sport’s timeless maxims, and it should certainly be the case on Friday night.

Indeed, the cynics may claim Essendon doesn’t have much form to flirt with, hence the importance of a strong performance in terms of building confidence.

It’s also a great opportunity for a player like Tom Bellchambers, who hasn’t played since round 15, to get some miles in his legs and some touch with the football.

A good win in this game, following on from a gallant comeback against the same opponent on Anzac Day, would also perhaps just sow a few seeds of doubt in Collingwood minds about the Bombers being able to handle anything the Pies can throw at them.

As for the concept of holding something up the sleeve for another finals meeting in a fortnight’s time, that’s been proven a furphy often enough over the years, and is probably even less relevant now.

Surprise positional switches might have caught teams off guard in the ‘80s and ‘90s. They don’t anymore. It’s method and consistency across four quarters which gets results. That’s what Essendon needs here.

2. What do we take from our last meeting with the Magpies?

Plenty. Mainly about exactly what is required to beat the really good teams. Namely, plenty of hard work, and plenty of defensive pressure.

Essendon conceded nine scoring shots to just one in the first quarter against Collingwood on Anzac Day, and by early in the second term was 33 points in arrears.

The Bombers were being smashed on the outside, mainly because Collingwood was also controlling the inside. From that point on, the Bombers kicked eight goals to just three. Why? Because just as significantly, after being doubled for clearances in the first term, the Dons finished up 11 in front as Dylan Shiel and Zach Merrett bored in relentlessly in the congestion to win the inside ball, the likes of Darcy Parish and attacking half-backs Adam Saad and Conor McKenna then having the opportunities they needed to do some damage.


Led by the likes of Dylan Shiel, the Dons eclipsed the Pies in clearances on Anzac Day. (Photo: AFL Photos)

Essendon would fall agonisingly short of victory, the obvious “what if?” the tardy start to the game. The Dons are ranked higher than Collingwood on the differentials for both clearances and tackles, so not for the first time of late, it’s a real opportunity to use a strong defensive method as a springboard for attack.

3. How do we put together a winning effort with so many changes unsettling the line-up?

There’s no denying there’s been a lot of changes at selection for Essendon lately, 18 over the past three weeks as a matter of fact.

Again, the losses are considerable, no Heppell or Zaharakis robbing the midfield of great ball-getting ability, no Fantasia or Stringer draining the forward set-up of great natural talent. But there’s decent compensation.

Tom Bellchambers’ ruck prowess returns at the perfect moment, coming up against arguably the AFL’s best ruckman in Brodie Grundy.

An All-Australian defender in Hooker returns to help stiffen the defence.

Jayden Laverde was starting to find his feet at senior level, if not his kicking boots, during the run of five consecutive wins recently.

And Dylan Clarke’s shutdown ability is an absolute must against Collingwood’s talented and deep midfield contingent, even without Steele Sidebottom.

They’re all handy inclusions, with debutant Tom Jok offering an exciting glimpse into the future.

The focus for the Bombers should be on system ahead of personnel. It’s a matter of executing the plan and getting the defensive game right. With the Bombers, when that happens, the offence generally takes care of itself.

4. What do we expect from Collingwood?

A side desperate to engineer a win and potentially grab a finals double chance. That means the Pies will be souped up for a big performance.

The other danger sign from an Essendon perspective is how well the Magpies played last week in their thrashing of Adelaide.

Collingwood’s form until then had been largely uninspiring, the Pies losing four out of five games before a routine win over bottom side Gold Coast and a struggle to beat Melbourne.

The Adelaide win was of much higher quality, however, this time the Pies taking advantage of their opportunities up forward, the obvious difference the class of Jamie Elliott, who finished with five goals.

Collingwood managed goals from nearly 30 per cent of their forward entries, a big rise of their season average. And the Pies’ forward set-up is looking a lot different since the season-ending injury to Mason Cox, injury to Jordan De Goey and suspension of Jaidyn Stephenson, with Travis Varcoe looking dangerous as a small pressure forward and Brody Mihocek always a threat.

Essendon needs to curtail and inhibit their supply out of the middle as much as possible.


Jamie Elliott and Travis Varcoe loom as dangermen. (Photo: AFL Photos)

5. In what areas might we be able to exploit the Pies?

It’s dependent upon a decent amount and decent quality of supply, of course, but if Essendon can at least split the midfield battle, there is an opportunity up forward to exploit Collingwood’s relative lack of defensive size.

The Pies have brought Darcy Moore into the line-up to counter that, but he hasn’t played for six weeks now and may be lacking match fitness and a bit of touch.

Collingwood has used Jordan Roughead in attack recently, but he may also have to go back to help out Moore and Jeremy Howe.

Essendon isn’t short of height near goal, with Shaun McKernan and Mitch Brown, Bellchambers capable of drifting forward to mark and goal, and Laverde not strictly speaking a tall, but more than useful overhead.

In the Anzac Day game, Joe Daniher was a key with four goals and eight marks, four of those contested. The Dons will have to find a wider spread of marking targets without him there this time, but clean and quick delivery inside 50 will surely give the Collingwood defenders some anxious moments.

You can read more of Rohan Connolly’s work at his FOOTYOLOGY website.