A week off to freshen up sore bodies, regroup and recharge has allowed Essendon to sign off on the first part of the 2019 AFL season. Now a much more important mini-season begins.

The history books and the pundits are constant reminders that Essendon hasn’t won a final since 2004. There have been five finals defeats in that time. And the challenge on this occasion – reigning premier West Coast on its own patch – isn’t any easier.

But in a season which has had its share of ups and downs, the Bombers have proved several times over their capacity for resilience against the odds, and that their very best football is a handful for any opponent.

Winning an elimination final would be an important milestone for Essendon. Here are five key questions which need to be addressed in order for that to happen.

1. Should we approach this game with confidence?

Absolutely. In terms of personnel, this is one of the strongest line-ups Essendon has put on the park all year.

Marty Gleeson is a loss, but the inclusions are considerable - Dyson Heppell, Cale Hooker, Jake Stringer and Orazio Fantasia not only four of the Dons’ very best, but most experienced players.

Stringer’s finals experience with the Western Bulldogs, particularly having been part of their team which beat West Coast in an elimination final in Perth three years ago, will be valuable, too.

As contentious as the pre-finals bye remains, it came at a good time for the Bombers, who have carried injuries and sore bodies for much of the back half of the season.

A win at the same venue in Perth just two games ago should have provided some handy reconnaissance, and a 2-2 record at the ground isn’t shabby.

Essendon has won two of its past three clashes with the Eagles, the most recent of those wins at the same ground last year.

2. We’ve lost our last five finals. What’s the biggest key to reversing that trend?

Starting well. No, it’s not rocket science. But in each of those losing finals bar the 2014 elimination final against North Melbourne, Essendon has surrendered an early advantage it hasn’t been able to wind back.

Indeed, of 10 first and second quarters in those five games, the Bombers have won just two, both against the Roos. There was a seven-goal second term by Adelaide in 2009, six goals from Carlton in the second quarter in 2011, and in our last final two years ago, a 10-goal avalanche by Sydney in the second term at the SCG.

The Bombers simply must be in touch with West Coast come half-time to be a chance in this game. Better still, seize an early advantage to take the parochial home crowd out of the equation. The Eagles’ hordes can fall unusually quiet when things aren’t going their way, and, needless to say, a better start than the opposition would start sewing a few seeds of doubt in the minds of the West Coast players, too.

3. West Coast is reigning premier, but are the Eagles as big a threat as last year?

Potentially, obviously dependent upon the result of this game. But they’re also more vulnerable, too.

Last year, the Eagles were able to secure a double chance and play two home finals en route to the MCG on Grand Final day. After losing their last two home-and-away games, this time they’ll need to win three consecutive games on the road to repeat the dose, either three times in Melbourne, or two in Melbourne and one in Brisbane.

In many statistical categories, West Coast is faring around the same mark as last year. Two discrepancies stand out, however. One is contested ball differentials, in which the Eagles ranked seventh in 2018 but are 17th now. That has had some impact on the amount of scoring opportunities they generate, last year West Coast ranked seventh for volume of inside-50 entries, not just 15th.

Essendon’s ranking for contested ball isn’t terrific, either, and it was an area in which both teams broke even in their round 14 meeting, but it’s a potential achilles heel for the home team the visitors can genuinely exploit.

4. How do we go about neutralising the Eagles’ biggest strengths?

West Coast’s keys are at either end of the ground. In defence, it is the ability of talls Jeremy McGovern and Tom Barrass to zone off their opponents and intercept opposition attacks. In attack, it’s key targets Josh Kennedy and Jack Darling, the medium-sized Jamie Cripps and dangerous smalls Liam Ryan and Willie Rioli.

In attack, Essendon will need to keep McGovern and Barrass accountable. That will require a lot of hard running from Shaun McKernan and Mitch Brown. It will require quick and clean delivery to the Bombers' tall forwards from further afield.


Brown's trademark work-rate will be important on Thursday night. (Photo: AFL Photos)

The Essendon forward group will also need to watch its positioning, leaving enough space in which to move and avoiding creating large packs sitting under high, speculative 'bombs' forward which give the West Coast backs time to do their thing.

When the Eagles go forward, Essendon’s midfield will need to work hard to apply pressure to the ball-carriers, guaranteeing West Coast’s forwards don’t benefit from easy access. Last meeting, the Eagles took 22 marks inside 50. That can’t happen again. A key will be not only bringing the ball to ground, but the capacity of rebounders Adam Saad and Conor McKenna to pounce on the crumbs before the Eagles’ ground-level goalsneaks.

5. How will the ruck battles pan out?

There’s no question the inclusion of Nic Naitanui for the Eagles casts a completely different complexion over this game to West Coast’s round 14 victory over the Bombers, not so much for his tap work but his clearance-winning ability.

The Eagles already rank fourth in that category, with Luke Shuey and Elliot Yeo both ranked in the AFL’s top 10.

Essendon’s Tom Bellchambers had a decent game in the round 14 loss opposed to Tom Hickey, with Naitanui out injured, winning the hit-out battle, but still West Coast won the clearance count, which helped them rack up 64 inside 50s.

This time, the ruck battle isn’t going to be so much ruckman versus ruckman as ruck division versus division. Bellchambers will need plenty of help from Shaun McKernan to see off not just Hickey, but Naitanui, particularly when it comes to coverage around the ground.

The heat will also be on the whole midfield group to make better use of Bellchambers’ wins in the hit-out battles.

You can read more of Rohan Connolly’s work at his FOOTYOLOGY website