THE BACKGROUND

The comeback continues. What less than three months ago for Essendon seemed the stuff of fantasy became first a flicker of hope, then a decent chance, and is now a very real prospect.

We’re talking finals, and remarkably, given a 2-6 start, the Bombers can move within touching distance of them with another win in another critical contest on Saturday against Hawthorn.

Essendon will have to win its remaining games and probably even then still rely on the stumbles of rivals to reach September for a second year in succession, but after eight wins from the past 10 games, who would dare suggest now it’s not at least possible?

And it’s not just the number of victories over the past three months or so, but their nature, last week’s convincing 43-point defeat of Sydney perhaps the most impressive yet, the Bombers’ edge in general play finally converted to scoreboard dominance when it mattered most.

The Swans were the fourth top eight team the Dons had knocked over during this increasingly ominous revival, and a fifth for the season. But so, as this run has progressed, have they also become better at locking away the more-expected wins.

Not that this Saturday is one of the latter. Hawthorn is another of those top eight teams standing between Essendon and finals football, the Hawks in seventh spot, a game and a stack of percentage in front of the Dons.

Like the Bombers, Hawthorn has also been in good form, with six wins from its last eight games, most of them emphatic, the average winning margin of the last five victories more than 10 goals. Hawthorn has also been a side which, by and large, has had Essendon’s measure in recent years, winning eight of the last 10 clashes between the great rivals of the 1980s.

Essendon will have its work cut out to reverse that trend this week. But lately, that’s a challenge the Dons have been more than happy to take on.

THE BOMBERS

Essendon’s remarkable improvement since a third of the way through the season has had a lot to do with a greater defensive mindset, but the benefits of that are now being felt everywhere.

One of the lingering issues even after the Bombers began to win games was their poor third quarters. Until round 17, they’d won just two all season. But there’s been three “premiership quarter” wins in a row since then, and likewise three second halves which have each returned nine goals as opposed to their opponents’ two, four and four.

A cornerstone of the revival has been a far harder-working, consistent and deeper midfield group.

Devon Smith, skipper Dyson Heppell and Zach Merrett have led the way, but they’ve had more support the longer the season has gone, Kyle Langford having a breakout season, David Myers in arguably career-best form since returning to the side in round 12, David Zaharakis finding his feet immediately upon his return from injury and Darcy Parish playing one of his best games against the Swans.

At either end of the ground, meanwhile, the structure appears more settled and more productive. Cale Hooker’s return to defence has tightened the screws on opponents and also given Michael Hurley a badly-needed chop-out.

And the scoreboard is ticking over a lot more prolifically, also. Mitch Brown is proving a more than handy hard-working key forward, and the return of Orazio Fantasia and return to form of Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti has been pivotal in Essendon’s better forward line pressure.

THE OPPOSITION

Hawthorn no longer boasts the guaranteed consistency of its glory days, more prone to the odd upset (as in two losses against Brisbane this season) but when the Hawks are “on” they are more than capable of matching it with just about anyone.

No one should doubt Hawthorn’s ability not only to make the eight but do some damage should it stay there. The Hawks have beaten Collingwood, Geelong, Melbourne and Port Adelaide this season, as well as the Bombers.

And their two reversals at the hands of Brisbane aside, even the games they’ve lost to quality opposition have been narrow defeats, four of their losses by 15 points or less.

They have the AFL’s most in-form midfielder in Tom Mitchell, currently averaging 36 disposals per game, and the best small forward in Luke Breust, who sits third in the Coleman Medal count.

After a rare dip on the scoring front last year, Hawthorn is back as a scoring force in 2018, currently ranked fourth at 90 points per game, and Breust, Jack Gunston and Jarryd Roughead have already this season combined for 107 goals.

Pace isn’t a strong suit, but the Hawks are still a precise kicking team capable of racking up the forward entries, a challenge in itself for the Bombers.

THE TEAMS

Another sign of how well Essendon is currently travelling came at the selection table with the announcement of no changes to the line-up for Saturday’s game.

Hawthorn, likewise, has kept changes to a minimum, with the only alteration to last week’s side which beat Fremantle in Perth Harry Morrison, who returns at the expense of Jono O'Rourke.

THE STATS

The two biggest statistical turnarounds during Essendon’s resurgence have been at the stoppages and in terms of points conceded.

At 2-6, the Bombers were ranked only 14^th on the clearance differentials, that ranking now second. After round eight, the Dons were giving up 96 points per game, only Brisbane and Carlton with worse records.

But from round nine onwards, the Bombers have ranked third for fewest points conceded, allowing just 71 points per game and conceding 100 points only twice.

Essendon has continued to win an increasing amount of possession, too, ranked third on the disposal differentials, and over the past month ranked No.1 for the time-in-possession differentials, nearly seven minutes per game more than its opposition.

The Bombers’ dramatic improvement at the stoppages may come in particularly handy, having lost the clearance count to the Hawks in round seven, and since 2014 having lost it to Hawthorn by an average seven per game, the worst differential recorded by any side.

The Hawks have no trouble creating scoring opportunities, averaging 10 more inside 50s than their opposition this season. Their forward pressure is also impressive, to date having averaged 35 points per game via forward half intercepts.

THE PLAN

Hawthorn plays an effective brand of football, capable of finding and hitting up free targets with uncontested marks and possessions. The Hawks are also particularly good at converting their forced turnovers into scores, ranked second in the AFL on percentage of intercepts turned to scores.

Essendon needs first to close down the space afforded those potential targets and increase the risk factor when Hawthorn has the ball. The Hawks’ efficiency in their pressure game also means the Dons need to play the percentages on transition out of defence.

That said, the Bombers have some big weapons of their own to cause Hawthorn plenty of problems.

One is pace, something of which Essendon has plenty, and the Hawks not as much. It’s an area in which the Dons can really capitalise through the middle of the ground with not only the midfield runners but also half-backs Adam Saad and Conor McKenna keys to that equation.

The other is around the stoppages. The Bombers rank second on the clearance differentials, Hawthorn only 14^th. But the Dons also rank second for percentage of scores from stoppage wins, and Saturday provides a great opportunity to capitalise on that ability.

THE RESULT

Hawthorn has held most of the aces in these games of late. Yet so much has changed about the Bombers even since the last meeting that the Hawks might as well be playing another team. Essendon’s belief is high, the line-up settled and the motivation obvious. This is one clash against an old rival the Dons can rightly be confident about facing.

You can read all Rohan Connolly’s work at Footyology and subscribe to Footyology TV at YouTube.