Looking back

Before you fall off your chair, I am putting out a warning.

That game against North Melbourne was probably Essendon’s best win for the year.

Anyone can get up for the so-called big games. The season (particularly this one) has had amazing ‘ups and downs’ and the key to playing finals is the ability to win under all circumstances, bank those four points and move to the next game … come September you might have 12, 13, 14 wins and a spot in the finals. Never underestimate or concern yourself with hard fought wins.

North never lose when Waite or Brown kick 4-6 goals. The Dons conceded 61 inside 50s and the opposition took nearly 20 marks inside 50. There were 12 changes of lead and the game went down to the wire. This was a very good win.

Essendon may well look back and say: ‘bloody important win that one'. Therefore, we move on, with four points in the ‘sky rocket’.

This week

Essendon will take on last year’s premiers in the Western Bulldogs for a place in the eight. Both teams are nine wins and eight losses. The Dons percentage is 109, Bulldogs 98. Essendon has kicked 276 more points than the Dogs but have conceded 102 points more. Both teams have won three of their last five.

The main difference over the course of the year is that for a variety of reasons the Dogs have been seriously disrupted. Roughead, Wallis, Liberatore, Crameri, Stringer, M. Boyd, Morris, Dunkley, Dickson, Cloke, Briggs, T. Boyd and Lin Jong have all missed large chunks of the year due to injury, suspension, form, selection philosophy and the serious issue of mental health.

Essendon has been remarkably free of such disturbances and has slowly built stability and team chemistry to the point where they now have destiny in their own hands. The Dogs are resilient, strong and courageous but have not reached the heights of their scintillating football of 2016. It says a lot for them that they are level with Essendon on 36 points.

The Dons would be pleased with their depth approaching September. A good balance of seasoned campaigners sit in the VFL. Stanton and Hocking are seasoned loyal Essendon men who will be ready to go. Langford, Laverde (selected) and Francis are never too far away in the youth department.

In Melbourne Cup parlance, the Dons have turned at the top of the Flemington straight one out and three back. They have plenty of horse underneath them. The Western Bulldogs are proven two milers. See you at the Clock Tower!

Together with Hawthorn v Sydney, the Dons and Dogs clash is must view football.

Western Bulldogs

There has been much spoken about a premiership hangover. Rule that out; it’s rubbish.

In a season where everything that could go wrong, has, the Bulldogs have a no stage found the balance of their absolute pressure and brilliant ball movement. However, they hang in. They fight.

So let us review where they are.

In 2016, they dominated contested possession (#1) and uncontested possession (#2). This year they are eighth and seventh respectively. Last year they were a huge territory team averaging +10 inside 50s per game more than their opponent. Weight of numbers got them through the finals series last year. There was a huge positive inside 50 differential in every finals game. They swamped teams. This year they are even with the opposition teams in inside 50s.

Despite this, they still battled to convert entries (relying on constant territory wins) in 2016. They are 18^th this year in converting entries to scores. Essendon are the opposite and if all things are equal and the Dons can absorb the Dogs pressure then percentage scores per entry should favour Essendon. Dale Morris is a huge loss for the Dogs.

They were a dominant clearance team last year. They were top three in 2016. In 2017, they are 15^th.

Their numbers in the past two games have returned to close to their best, but with respect they have played Carlton and Gold Coast. Essendon will severely test them.

However, be warned. They will present a midfield which includes Hunter, Roughead, Dahlhaus, Bontempelli, Macrae, Wallis, Liberatore and Daniel. This is complemented by outstanding run and distribution off half back from Murphy, Wood, Johannisen and the impressive Bailey Dale. The Dogs may struggle to kick goals and even hold the Essendon tall forwards but they will win plenty of the ball and control significant amounts of territory during the game.

Selection

Travis Cloke returns to replace the suspended Jack Redpath, while Tory Dickson is also back for the Dogs. 

The Bombers have included Kyle Langford, Matt Dea and Josh Begley, but expect the Dons to stick with the same 22 that knocked off North Melbourne.

The absence of Dale Morris is significant. Fletcher Roberts may get the nod from the Dogs extended bench but whatever combination they go with, their key defenders will have their work cut out for them on Joe Daniher and Cale Hooker.

Dale Morris would have been a likely opponent for Joe Daniher or Cale Hooker.

Injury update

It just continues for the Western Bulldogs with Clay Smith, Jack Redpath suspended and the brilliant veteran defender Dale Morris has a broken arm. Lin Jong continues his recovery from knee surgery. At either end of the ground, the Dogs will miss Jake Stringer (hamstring) and the reliable full back Marcus Adams with a foot injury. Tom Boyd continues to work through mental health challenges.

It’s great news for Essendon with Paddy Ambrose on the comeback trail. Mitch Brown (ankle) and Josh Green (hamstring) are unavailable. 

The Dogs just have not managed to be settled at any stage this year and the recent injury/suspension spate is typical of their year.

Yet, be warned. They are level with Essendon, who everyone says are one of the form teams in the competition.

On the settled nature of the team, available talent (injury list) and current form Essendon should win for those reasons in isolation. Unfortunately, it does not work that way. 

Statistical analysis

Average Possessions: ESS 3^RD WB 4^TH

Average Clearances: ESS 14^TH WB 15^TH

Average Inside 50: ESS 13^TH WB 7^TH

Disposal Efficiency: ESS 4th WB 8^TH

Average Contested Possessions: ESS 11^TH WB 7^TH

Uncontested Possession” ESS 3^RD WB 7^TH

Average Tackles: ESS 15^th WB 1^ST

Average Scores: ESS 14G 5PT WB 11.5

Rebound 50: ESS 2^st WB 10^TH

Marks Inside 50: ESS 6^TH WB 12^TH

Disposal efficiency, average scores and marks inside 50 are all strong indicators of ball movement and forward structure for Essendon. The Bulldogs will counter with contested ball and tackling. The Dogs are a high inside 50 team but a low scoring team with 11g 5p average. Going on the figures, the averages, and combine this with personnel being out it would appear that the Dogs can not worry Essendon enough on the scoreboard, particularly if the Bombers bring sound defence and pressure. 

The template

Essendon would not be happy with a few things from the North game. Ten goals between Waite and Brown is not flattering. In addition, allowing over 60 inside 50s and conceding more than 100 points. These three areas will need to be tightened up. Marks conceded Inside 50 (18) was the most for the season against the Dons. Apart from that ‘the template’ stood up again in the majority of indicators, resulting in a five goal win in the end.

Summary

It is a good position for Essendon to be in. The backline had a lot of goals kicked on them and the midfield conceded far too many inside 50s. Therefore, the bonus is that serious review and reflection comes on top of a hard-fought four points. They would be aware of improvement areas as they let the defensive part of their game slide. Equally, Essendon would be delighted with the four quarter fighting effort and the capacity to kick 20 goals.

It will be interesting to see if Essendon try the successful formula with tagging Johannisen. The old saying is applicable here: ‘Give them what they don’t want”. The inclusion of Laverde adds extra versatility. He can play half forward, wing and midfield. It adds a great dimension in my opinion. Because of this flexibility and the fact that Essendon still have two of the most destructive forwards at ground level, I would have no hesitation in going straight after Johannisen again, and cutting out a critical runner for the Dogs.

In Round 19 2015 Laverde held Heath Shaw to an average game while getting 18 disposals himself. While this may or may not happen, it certainly underlines his great value to the team as a multi-dimensional player. From memory, he may have had the job on Adelaide’s Brodie Smith in 2015 too. It is an option now available to Essendon. A player that can do the defensive forward role heading into the finals against some of the most offensive rebounders is strategic gold for the Essendon coaches. I would be looking at the Johannisen situation.

The Bulldogs through the highs and lows of their history are fighters and have great character. This group, led by Bob Murphy, are a proud lot. The Bombers will win because they are more settled. They can hurt the Dogs with efficiency, ball movement and marking power up forward. The Dogs have more injuries and suspensions. The depth and balance of Essendon will win the game.

“Give them what they don’t want.”