THE BACKGROUND
It’s early in a season to be talking reality checks, but that’s pretty much what Essendon received last Saturday night in Perth.
Superficially, a first-up win over a grand finalist of last season made an assignment against an opponent which had finished 14th in 2017 and been smashed in round one look easy pickings, even away from home.
Which goes to show how useless superficial assessments are in an AFL competition as even as we have now. For at no stage did Essendon’s 16-point loss to Fremantle play out according to those plot lines.
Jumped at the start by the Dockers, also playing for premiership points for the first time at the new Optus Stadium, Essendon fought back to temporarily take the lead, but Freo always made the running thereafter, the last three goals of the game producing a final margin that perhaps didn’t really reflect the advantage the home side held.
Now comes a Sunday clash against another opponent coming off an inglorious defeat, or in the case of the Western Bulldogs, two of them.
It’s been a miserable start to the year for the Dogs, beaten by 82 points against Greater Western Sydney and last week by 51 points at home to West Coast.
Essendon, however, after last week’s experience, will be wary of a chastened foe, and conscious also of the fact the Dogs have in their last three meetings with the Bombers scored three very comfortable wins.
THE BOMBERS
Essendon will be grateful for an eight-day break between games after what can often prove a draining road trip to Perth. Grateful, too, to be back at Etihad Stadium, where the Dons’ recent record is good, six wins from their past nine appearances.
What was becoming a long casualty list is starting to shrink a little, too, the biggest name returning this week small forward Orazio Fantasia, whose ground-level goalkicking and defensive pressure has been missed.
Experienced and strong-bodied midfielder David Myers is also back in the selection frame, along with big man Shaun McKernan and veteran defender Mark Baguley.
Myers’ clearance-winning ability will come at a premium this week, the stoppages one area where the Bombers have struggled to date, ranked second-last in the competition for clearance wins after the first two games.
Essendon would dearly love a lift from spearhead Joe Daniher, held goalless last week after two in the win over Adelaide, also some excitement from speedster Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti, who had only seven disposals against Fremantle.
This is a big game too, for obvious reasons, for former Bulldog Jake Stringer. The premiership forward has delivered something of a mixed bag in his two games in red-and-black thus far, some good moments against the Crows, but like a lot of teammates, much quieter in Perth last week.
THE OPPOSITION
This is a critical game for the Bulldogs, with harsh questions likely to be asked in the advent of another heavy defeat.
Their first two games have been lost by an average 66 points, with the alarm bells ringing even louder after last Sunday’s loss to West Coast, a game in which the pressure which helped take the Dogs to the 2016 premiership was transparently lacking at stages
Injury continues to bite as well, with Jackson Trengove the latest casualty, further weakening the Dogs’ already depleted defensive stocks.
Coach Luke Beveridge bemoaned his team’s failure to use the ball efficiently in its loss to the Eagles, but perhaps a bigger concern still is its dramatic drop-off in the contested game, the Bulldogs belted by both GWS and West Coast for hard-ball numbers.
Injuries, retirements and changes of club left the Dogs with just 11 premiership players in last week’s 22, but of those near-dozen, how many are playing at anywhere near the same levels as when the club took their first premiership in 62 years?
THE TEAMS
With final line-ups and emergencies to be determined on Friday afternoon, Essendon has added Orazio Fantasia, David Myers, Mark Baguley and Shaun McKernan to last week’s 22.
The Bulldogs, meanwhile, have lost two more big men in Jordan Roughead and Jackson Trengove, through injury. Tory Dickson, Jack Redpath, Mitch Wallis, Tom Boyd, Fletcher Roberts and Shane Biggs are all in line for selection in the final team.
THE STATS
In their premiership year, the Bulldogs were the undisputed kings of the contested ball. No stat better represents the extent of their fall-off, the Dogs after two games this season ranked last for the same category, and last week finding themselves minus 23 by half-time against the side which had itself been bottom for that statistic after round one.
Essendon has made some improvement in the same area so far, currently ranked mid-table, slightly higher than last season. The Dogs have superior numbers for clearances, but the Dons have been faring better at the centre bounces than around the ground, which, particularly at Etihad Stadium, will be useful.
Conversion of scoring opportunities has been the biggest difference statistically between the two teams after two rounds, Essendon turning nearly 27 per cent of its forward 50 entries into goals, ranked fourth. The Bulldogs, in contrast, are at the moment the worst converters in the competition, going at a miserable 15 per cent despite having as many inside 50s.
THE PLAN
John Worsfold spoke this week about his team’s need to slow the game down on transition to allow key forwards Joe Daniher, Cale Hooker and James Stewart enough time to make better position.
That direction, though, will need to be balanced against the benefits to be gained from more effective quick ball movement, which in this particular match-up, seem obvious, Essendon boasting one of the AFL’s taller set-ups and coming up against a side for whom defensive height and strength is right now a real concern.
While premiership defender Fletcher Roberts looks likely to return to the mix, his fellow tall backman in Zaine Cordy and Aaron Naughton wouldn’t want to find themselves in too many one-on-ones against the Bomber talls.
With a decent enough supply out of midfield, Daniher, Hooker and Stewart loom as major factors in this game, and the return of Fantasia also will be critical given the amount of contests the big men are likely to create.
THE RESULT
The Bulldogs will surely be stung at least into a more competitive mindset. But while Essendon still has its issues on the road, the Bombers deserve to approach this game with confidence, given both the venue and the damaged self-belief of their opponent.
You can read all Rohan Connolly’s work HERE at Footyology.
