Adelaide is coming off the high emotions of a Showdown and Essendon is travelling again on a six-day break and a slogging loss against Carlton. The Crows did not have to leave home this week whilst the Bombers have another game on the road. In such a tight even competition, these seemingly subtle differences become significant.
The Crows preferred forward structure has been thrown into question with the loss of Jenkins and McGovern. How they set up will be interesting.
SELECTION
Adelaide have chosen a medium and smart forward in Menzel, so their forward set up will be different without McGovern and Jenkins. Essendon will play Green deep forward and one thing this allows is Fantasia or McDonald-Tipungwuti to push into the midfield. McKenna’s form and extra pace means Essendon have another set of fresh legs to run off half back. With Hocking’s omission being based on extra pace and run.
ADELAIDE
In: T.Menzel
Out: M.McGovern (hamstring)
ESSENDON
In: J.Green, C.McKenna
Out: H.Hocking, M.Gleeson
Conor McKenna is back in the Essendon side this week.
SECRET WEAPON
At the start of the year, John Worsfold secured Opposition Scout, Rob Harding from the Crows. He has worked with Don Pyke and the late Phil Walsh on game plan and strategy. Worsfold also spent a year there and knows Don Pyke very well. He will have enormous insight into the Crows game plan and subsequently his information should allow the Bomber strategists to come up with an excellent game plan to expose and nullify. Essendon have all the knowledge they need. Now to application of knowledge without over analysing…
STATISTICS
The Crows have the leading marks inside 50 in the competition - courtesy of their ball movement and forward set up. They have taken 52 marks inside forward 50 in three games. This has led to them averaging 17.11.113 per game. They are also number one for goal assists, showing again their excellent chemistry when moving the ball. If you link that with a disposal efficiency of 75 per cent (Essendon 70%), it is quite clear the Bombers have to bring a high intensity pressure game to disrupt the Crow movement patterns. To balance this part of their game they are also number two in contested possessions (Essendon number ten at this stage).
Essendon must get their clearance work up to speed. Last week the Dons lost 37-46 in clearances, 6-10 in centre breaks and 31-36 in stoppages. The Crows are third in centre clearances while the Dons are 17th. It would have been a big week on the video for midfield coach ‘Bluey’ McKenna, given Leuenberger’s tap domination. It appears tap domination does not equate to clearance proficiency. It’s a big battle, Leuenberger v Jacobs, just the same.
CROWS HAVE DEVELOPED SPEED THROUGH 2ND TIER PLAYERS
Adelaide have not had the class midfield (no Crouch, Thompson recently) of some of the other clubs so they have had to be smart in their development of players around the edges and push some of these players through the middle of the ground. They are comfortable to break even or just win in the clinches but take you apart on the outside. Knight, Cameron, Atkins, Hampton and Milera have all been added to the mix. They beat you with handball and run and efficiency.
The following numbers are outstanding. They have dominated in these areas.
Round 1 +51 handballs and +58 uncontested possession
Round 2 +38 handballs and +26 uncontested possession (that was after being 25 down in the first quarter)
Round 3 +30 handballs and +31 uncontested possession
ADELAIDE WILL ALWAYS TRY TO GET IN BEHIND YOU
In 2016, the Crows kicked more easy goals (0-10 metres out) than any other team. They would work their opponents up the ground and then race them back. Their kicking to space over the top is exceptional. However, three sides found them out last year.
Essendon would’ve watch last year’s footage of how Geelong figured them out. The Cats held the back half in position and would not let the Crows get goal side.
Late in the season, West Coast did the same to them and Sydney repeated it in the final.
At the start of this year, they are getting it all their way. In the first three rounds, they have had staggering numbers of marks inside forward 50. These are extraordinary figures;
Round 1 18 marks
Round 2 17 marks
Round 3 17 marks
If you are kicking with any accuracy at all this means you are getting 10/12 goals from set shots per game, this is far too high to allow. This will be the second focus area of Essendon’s preparation.
THE IMPORTANCE OF TOM LYNCH
This player is the key gut runner and sets up most of their play. You either have to have a super tank to play him or wait for him to come back through you. The loss of Jenkins and now McGovern may see Adelaide adjust his role. These are two big losses.
Given the ‘marks inside 50’ stat - election and personnel for the Crows will be important, as they will want to stick to what works and have Lynch high up the ground. Ambrose for Essendon can match his running capacity.
Patrick Ambrose could get the job on Tom Lynch.
THE CROWS GIVE YOU A CHANCE TO SCORE
The Crows are happy play shoot-out football, but the fact they are not particularly interested in strong defensive action does give you a chance. In their first three rounds, they have had 91 points, 89 points and 83 points kicked against. When you look at it in reality, they have had 263 points kicked against them in their first three matches. The Bombers have kicked 269 points in their first three matches so they will give you a chance to score.
THE CROWS GIVE YOU A CHANCE AT CLEARANCES
For a dominant team in the competition they are an average clearance team. With the fact that they do not defend that well there is a definite opportunity here.
In their first three rounds they have only been +1 round one, +2 in round two and +1 round three in clearances against their particular opposition. Without Thompson and Crouch, they are happy to break even, then be devastating on the outside.
These are generally not the figures of a top four team but, as I repeat, they have adjusted very well.
LAIRD AND SMITH’S INFLUENCE MUST BE NEGATED
These two players are of All-Australian quality with their run and carry from the defensive end. One might get off the chain and score against them, but in games where both have been prominent they simply do not lose.
Much of the team’s drive comes through their ‘yards gained’. Essendon has numerous dangerous attacking options in its forward line and will most likely ‘not negate’. This has the hallmarks of a real shoot-out when the ball comes in. If it is a head-to-head battle then Essendon must bring its best defensive pressure or Laird and Smith will cut them up.
MATCH UPS TO WATCH
Michael Hurley vs Taylor Walker
Patrick Ambrose vs Tom Lynch.
Without Jenkins and McGovern, does a win for Essendon in these two match ups swing the game the Dons way?
TIP
The opposition statistical package is alarming if Essendon allow Adelaide to play on their terms. The 2nd week of travel, the taxing game last week and the six-day break are all factors working against Essendon. The Adelaide Oval, with both Port and the Crows, is highly charged, intense and the ball is moved at high speed. Eventually these factors will prove too much for Essendon and the Crows will be too good.
So a few things against the Dons this week but they will get a ‘good look’ in the areas I have highlighted. Can they sustain pressure, intensity and percentage ball use over four quarters? That, together with their inner knowledge (of Pyke’s game plan) will be the key.
