The great thing about this contest is that both teams have shown they can play. The Dons should be 3-1 and the Pies dismantled the Swans in Sydney with an aggressive and systematic approach. The Pies have had nine days rest and recovery, while the Dons are coming off a ten-day break. Fit, refreshed and the chance to review their first month of football and make the necessary adjustments be it structural or selection – there are no excuses here.

Both teams have no difficulty finding the footy. Due to the significance of the day, both teams will lift and we will see the best of both teams in an enthralling contest. If we took out the importance of the occasion, it is still a very big day in the short and long-term aspirations of both teams.

Selection

Essendon made two changes. Ben McNiece gets an opportunity to debut on ANZAC Day (in place of Conor McKenna) while Aaron Francis will provide an additional target up forward with the occasional run on the ball.

The Pies have rotated their height to try to get a working partnership with Darcy Moore. Mason Cox gets another opportunity. Collingwood has wasted no time in getting Daniel Wells into the team.

Aaron Francis will play his first senior game of the season on ANZAC Day.

The Stats

- Both the Bombers and Magpies continue to be high disposal teams. Collingwood is ranked third and Essendon is fourth for total disposals in the competition, while the Bombers are in the top four for uncontested possessions.

- Collingwood remains the most inaccurate team in 2017, kicking 41.47 at 38.7 per cent. Essendon has been better in this area, kicking 53.31 at 51 per cent.

- Essendon has struggled taking the ball inside 50 this season, being ranked 17th with only 48.3 a game. In contrast, Collingwood is ranked sixth, with 55.5 a game.

- Essendon has conceded an average 60 inside 50’s (too many). Collingwood are 9^th for total Inside 50’s - (Essendon are 17^th).

- The sides rank 13^th and 14^th in effective disposals - not great on the CV.

Collingwood

- The focus has been on Darcy Moore. He’s very talented and very young. An ideal 2^nd or 3^rd tall at the stage of his development. Collingwood need to provide that support for him in terms of taller options around him. They have chosen Cox this week who is a good mark. Essendon has to expose him by bringing the ball to ground and running him.

- By the numbers they have ‘won’ three out of the four midfield contests this season (they lost to Richmond).

- The Pies have with talls at both ends. There is a reluctance to release Reid and Howe due to their capacity to intercept mark.

- The only time they have won this year was with an astonishing tackle count. They had 115 against Sydney and won by a point. The Pies bat deep through the midfield. Pendlebury will not have another bad game. Treloar, Adams, Greenwood, Crisp and the dangerous Sidebottom are a very good midfield. Now Wells becomes the x-factor. He will complement this midfield extremely well and while he may be a fraction underdone, his kicking skills will be important. In fact, I am tipping that Wells and Sidebottom to be the difference … if they are allowed to be.

Essendon

- The Bombers had 48 tackles against a rampant Adelaide. This has to double. Collingwood will have the very same focus. Expect a physical, high tackling game.

- The Dons have allowed 63, 60, 55 and 60 inside 50’s in the four games this season. That’s too much and shows they have to ensure their forward tackling inside 50 improves significantly to allow mids and backs to set up the defensive system.

- Leuenberger and Grundy will have a great battle. Both teams are even in clearances so, again, it will come down to forward entries. Wells does not need many possessions. The centre square is going to be super important and it will be decisive in the outcome. Essendon cannot afford to be outgunned and outspread (as Adelaide did) in this contest.

- Essendon must exploit the Collingwood defence. Reid and Howe are great intercept marks, Goldsack is having a good year and new player Schade will be disciplined and dour. However, they are slightly undersized if the Essendon three (Daniher, Hooker and Francis) can mark it.

- Both teams have excellent medium small forwards. Fasolo, Elliott, Fantasia and McDonald-Tipungwuti are clever, smart and very dangerous. If Essendon can limit Fasolo and Elliott then they can certainly beat Moore and Cox. Significantly, Essendon’s forward six are much better than Collingwood’s. The combination of power forwards and smart smalls see Essendon have the potency.

Robert Shaw says the Bombers hold the edge over Collingwood in the forward half.

Tip

Both teams will have a very similar focus.

1. Get the tackle count up.

2. Make the most of forward line entries (Collingwood 6^th Essendon 17^th yet the Pies only average 10.3 goals per game). That is as much to do with methodology of going forward (system), as personnel.

3. The teams rank 13^th and 14^th in effective disposals.

4. Both teams are in the top half of the league for contested possession. Therefore, this is a genuine battle of the midfield, with the team that uses the ball most efficiently inside 50 coming out as winners.

It is a line ball. Both teams will have a focus of putting a lot of tackling pressure on. It will come down to ball use going forward and Essendon’s capacity to limit Collingwood’s Inside 50 entries to fewer than 50.

Collingwood’s ability to beat Essendon will come down to winning clearances and contested ball. This will allow them to sit Sidebottom and Wells just off the play to be the key distributors.

Tag Sidebottom!

If Collingwood win their normal share of the ball (and bring Wells and Sidebottom into play) - Essendon concede 60 Inside 50’s and the Pies ball use will be better, therefore they will win.

If Essendon improves its stoppage work, force Collingwood to turn the ball over and hold Collingwood to 50 inside 50s or less, I believe Essendon has the better forward line to maximise their forward entries.

Either side by less than 10 points.