To give the significance of this match between the tenth placed Bombers and 17^th placed North Melbourne some added context, let’s quickly take a step back to earlier this month.

Date: Sunday July 2 2017

Time: 1.10pm

Venue: Etihad Stadium

Stakes: Bloody high

Article: Shaw’s Essendon v Brisbane Preview

“Essendon must set their standards and stick to them. They must be focused and mentally switched on. Brisbane will be hard to beat so if Essendon present themselves any less than 100 per cent focused then the Lions will get their third win. Do not underestimate the ‘no names’. The improvement has come from within”. Robert Shaw

The Bombers will know the same sentiment applies this week. 

Sitting just outside the eight, the Dons host their Mt. Alexander Rd rivals, North Melbourne. The history dates back to 1950 when the Coleman led Dons defeated the courageous Shinboners in the Grand Final. Since the Comeback game of 2001, Essendon has played in 12 finals matches for five wins (all pre-2005) while the Kangaroos have gone four wins and nine losses from their 13 finals games.

The late 90’s to early 2000’s saw one of the most intense rivalries go up to another level providing some of the most intense and aggressive football I have witnessed. Marshmallows, Sheedy v Pagan, Archer v Hird, Lloyd v Martyn and Carey v whoever! It all adds up to genuine rivalry and North will bring their best.

Now to the present. North is going through a huge period of transition in their List Management. No Harvey, Dal Santo, Firrito and Petrie in a bid to rejuvenate their list. They made an error going with four all at once leaving a developing squad exposed. They are 17^th on the ladder.

The Dons are also using the word 'transition' at times. They have easily accounted for West Coast, Geelong, Port and St Kilda. Losing narrowly to GWS, Richmond and Sydney where they were competitive. Losses to Freo (at the time), Carlton and Brisbane were deemed unacceptable. Therefore, there are the three phases of Essendon. Very good, very competitive and average – or as the CEO pointed out - ‘not good enough, not even close.’

 A reminder - the Western Bulldogs went five wins and three losses in their last eight rounds in 2016 - then four straight victories in the finals. They never got higher than seventh on the ladder in the last six rounds - meaning they came home with nine wins and three losses.

Essendon has six rounds to go. Its consistent best is capable of winning most of those games. However, that is purely ‘pie in the sky’ if the Dons do not come mentally armed and professionally tough to get the job done.

North might not be good enough, but this is Essendon v North. They will be up for a fight. It is the ‘Mt. Alexander Rd thing’ and in the hearts and minds of the ‘Same Olds’ and old Shinboners there is a bit in this game.

Message on the whiteboard

Why does it need to change? I thought the Dons were outstanding in this area from start to finish last week against the Saints. It was probably the best I have seen the team do, in the absolute basics, consistently for four quarters. It simply means they were all mentally involved early (do not spectate), were harder at the ball than the Saints (bring physical game) and got the aggressive tackles up early (shop early). This sets up ‘structure and set ups’, not the other way around. You often hear teams say ‘we fell down in our structures’. It’s nearly always because they didn’t bring the basics. Effort > Structure

1. Don’t spectate

2. Bring your physical game.

3. ‘Shop early’

Jayden Laverde returns for the Bombers against the Kangaroos.

Selection

North have swung the changes with Jack Ziebell ‘managed’ and veterans Todd Goldstein and Lindsay Thomas dropped. Corey Wagner and Mitchell Hibberd were left out because of injury. Jarrad Waite is a handy inclusion – he’s kicked 31 goals against the Bombers in his career, only the Tigers have given up more goals to the former Blue. Run with player Trent Dumont could get the job on Zach Merrett. 

A refreshed Jobe Watson returns for Essendon while Jayden Laverde edged out a host of options to fill the vanancy created by the injury to Josh Green. The health of Essendon’s list leaves the match committee with plenty of depth to choose from.

North is in the opposite position with 15 players on the injury list. However, there is no place for sympathy here.

Bellchambers v Daw 

Just 18 months ago, Goldstein was the clear number one ruckman in the competition. But now he’s out of the side. Ryder, Kreuzer, Martin, McEvoy, Grundy, Jacobs etc have all pushed past him in terms of effectiveness. 

Bellchambers is certainly moving in that direction and will come up against the athletic Majak Daw. The North Melbourne ruckman’s last month of football has seen a combined average of five possessions per game and a total of three goals. The positive for Daw is that he is a very good tap ruckman at centre bounces with his extraordinary leap. This will worry Bellchambers although he was outstanding against Ryder (another leaper).

The Dons ruckman has good ruck craft and is strong in the contest. He is pushing forward in a rotation with Daniher, which leaves the Dons with their three preferred tall options. He takes marks and is an accurate kick for goal. His tap work and understanding with Heppell and Merrett at the centre bounces is outstanding.

Balanced Midfield v Cement Heads

Essendon should be able to outrun and outspread the North midfielders on the outside. They will get a significant opportunity to run hard if the Bombers half back line continues to dominate through Kelly, McGrath and McKenna.

The Bombers midfield depth and options have improved with Bird getting an opportunity last week. It will be even better when youngsters in Laverde and Langford are further developed to run through there. Port Adelaide scored 8.6.54 from stoppages to North’s 3.6.24 and they were beaten 49-30 in clearances against Port.

‘Cement heads’ is a term of endearment as Swallow, Cunnington and Ziebell (although he’s not playing this week) are unconditionally tough in close. They are fearless in their approach at the football and will put their head over the ball. Essendon must equal the physical battle at the stoppages, then spread hard from clearances, using their hands and set up to run the North men away from congestion. Essendon should clearly win around the edges of clearances if they equal it inside. Cunnington and Swallow had 18 of North’s 30 clearances last week.

Cale Hooker has proven a tough match-up for opposition defences this season.

The Forward lines

Essendon is very settled. Daniher is a contender for the Coleman medal, Hooker is a tough match up and there are signs that Stewart is developing his consistency and confidence. The Dons can also throw Bellchambers, Heppell, Goddard and Watson forward at times. The small players at ground level compliment this.

The Bombers get contributions across the board and while they will come up against a terrific player in Tarrant and the feisty and resilient Thompson, they should be too multi-dimensional for the Kangaroos defence.

When North wins it’s either Brown or Waite who kick five or six. Brown kicked 11 combined in the wins over Gold Coast and Melbourne while Waite dominated against Adelaide with six. Due to the suspension and injury of Waite, they have never really clicked together.

Statistical analysis

Average Possessions: ESS 6th NM 16^TH

Average Clearances: ESS 18^TH NM 12^TH

Average Inside 50s: ESS 13^TH NM 10^TH

Disposal Efficiency: ESS 4^th NM 11^TH

Average Contested Possessions: ESS 15^TH NM 12^TH

Uncontested Possession: ESS 2^ND NM 16^TH

Average Tackles: ESS 15^th NM 2^ND

Average Scores: ESS 5^TH NM 7^TH

Rebound 50s: ESS 2^st NM 5^TH

Marks Inside 50 ESS 6^TH NM 9^TH 

Last on the clearance ladder is not something the group would be pleased with in isolation. However, if we look at the last month template Essendon’s performance has been very good. They have managed to square the contests and therefore they allow their secondary clearance movement to come into play. They are excellent in the secondary movement (run and spread from the contest) from clearances and this will worry North. 

The template

What started out as a bit of an experiment for the readers to gauge is starting to settle into some pattern and gain a bit of ‘credibility’. The numbers against the fifth placed Saints were almost identical to the Port game. They are waffling on about premiership favouritism for Port and the Dons dismantled them by 70 points a month ago, then put the Saints to the sword by 61 points. The figures do not lie.

If Essendon meets certain criteria and standards, it does not matter who they play. Talent is not the problem but I have never seen a stat sheet that measures mental toughness and fierce completive desire to ‘kill’ off an opposition. This is what wavers with the Dons. Essendon must hunt for 120 mins.

Summary

Pretty brief one this.

In summary, I can analyse talent, review stats, consider match ups and structure all you like. It has nothing to do with it, as Essendon are a six to eight goal better side than North Melbourne. However, if Essendon do not come mentally armed, professionally tough and with 100 per cent effort they will be beaten by the 17^th placed team.

The Bombers are desperate to play in (and win) finals. It will be reflected in their passion and effort.

"Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it."

Robert Shaw is a former AFL Coach and Essendon Life Member.  He provides independent anlysis for essendonfc.com.au.