Essendon will complete the home and away season with back-to-back wins against Gold Coast and Fremantle. While it is an awkward trip north this week, there is far too much at stake to drop either of these two games.

I’m jumping the gun slightly given the week-to-week nature of the competition but I wonder where a 12 wins and 10 losses finish will be seen. It’s obviously a positive in the win/loss column and the team has constantly been in the picture for a final eight spot. Certainly, that is still very much the case.

I have no knowledge of player/coach expectations but the gut feel is both groups would be very disappointed if they were watching in September. It has been a good comeback from last year with a new team on the park. This led to its own set of challenges. Looking back game by game, and even moment by moment, there is no doubt the team has left some points in the shed as the Dons had every opportunity to be a 13-14 win team.

The Gold Coast woes have been well documented. The coach leaves replaced by an Essendon favourite in Dean Solomon. The marquee player, in Ablett, rarely plays in the past eight weeks raising questions on his motivation and leadership. The Suns have ten of their best 18 injured and on the sidelines. They played a terrific half of football last week (9.4 to 8.9) at the Gabba and the fact that they have not had to travel is a real bonus for the young inexperienced team. 

Selection

A host of changes for both sides.

Essendon

In: Josh Begley, Craig Bird, Tom Bellchambers, Michael Hartley, Mark Baguley, Zach Merrett.

Out: Jobe Watson (managed), Matthew Leuenberger (ankle), Ben Howlett, Michael Hurley (calf), Travis Colyer, Matt Dea

Gold Coast

In: P. Hanley, K. Brooksby, B. Fiorini, J. Lonergan, J. Leslie, M. Hallahan
Out: D. Currie (foot), S. Lemmens (ankle), J. Lyons (ankle), J. Scrimshaw (omit), A. Sexton (omit), J. Bowes (omit)

That’s 12 changes between the two teams. Due to injury, the Essendon ruckmen swap again. There is a well-deserved debut for Josh Begley while Craig Bird and the vital Zach Merrett have been added to the midfield. Jobe Watson will not travel while Michael Hartley will be a straight swap for the injured Michael Hurley. Hartley will have the defensive spoiling role on Peter Wright. The Suns have a host of fleet footed smalls up forward so it’s good to have Mark Baguley back in that squad too.

Josh Begley has been picked to make his AFL debut against the Suns.

Injuries/suspension

Fantasia is still some weeks away with his hamstring and the timing and management will be critical. All his teammates can do is win and hopefully buy him time. Merrett is such a welcome addition to the midfield. Bellchambers will be tested which presents an interesting choice on the big Metricon ground. I thought Leuenberger was excellent last week against Jacobs, but is carrying an achilles and didn’t get up. The Bombers used him very well and did not allow Jacobs to influence the game as he had the previous weeks.

Ablett (rover), Barlow (on ball), Day (key position), Kolodjashnij (half back), Lemmens (utility), Lynch (power forward), Nicholls (ruck), Thompson (ley defender) and Witts (ruck) are all out for the Gold Coast. All start on the ground in their best side. Therefore, Solomon and his Suns have significant issues putting this side together to face Essendon.

Statistical analysis

Average Possessions: ESS 3^RD GC 8^TH

Average Clearances: ESS 18^TH GC 8^TH

Average Inside 50: ESS 12^TH GC 13^TH  

Disposal Efficiency: ESS 4^th GC 9^TH

Average Contested Possessions: ESS 14^TH GC 11^TH

Uncontested Possession: ESS 2^RD GC 6^TH

Average Tackles: ESS 16^th GC 18^TH

Average Scores: ESS 3^rd GC 13^TH

Marks Inside 50: ESS 7^TH GC 15^TH

Percentage: ESS 104 GC 80

For a team that has been decimated by injury the Gold Coast has stood up pretty well. They get the ball well, their clearance work is excellent considering who is missing and they have a reasonably balanced game between contested and uncontested possessions. They like to run and use space so their disposal efficiency is also quite reasonable.

Their defensive transition game is poor and was the first ‘order of business’ from interim coach Solomon. Not surprisingly, Dean has demanded a greater focus on winning the ball back off the opposition.

The template

Clearly, this did not stand up against the form team in the competition. While clearances and disposals were even, Adelaide dominated the Dons in forward line efficiency and options moving inside 50. There was a huge discrepancy in terms of marks inside 50, with 22 to Adelaide and eight to Essendon. This is due to a combination of forward structure, inside 50 entries and disposal efficiency.

This week Essendon should be able to get the stats in its favour as the Suns are missing Tom Lynch and Sam Day and therefore rely heavily on Peter Wright up forward.

The venue will suit Essendon’s quick transfer of play. 

Tip

Andrew McGrath may be needed again to quell a huge talent in the Gold Coast ranks. The highly talented Jack Martin kicked four first half goals against the Lions and his creative play and combination with Ben Ainsworth and Peter Wright will keep any defence on notice. The Suns have run and talent in the likes of Swallow, Martin, Ainsworth, Hall, Harbrow, May, Saad and Wright. But they have been severely weakened in the ruck division and have lost key forwards and key backs to injury.

Dean Solomon has had very little time to adjust the natural attacking instincts of the Suns to a more measured and accountable system. No team has tackled less this season than the Suns, averaging 62.3 a game, while the Bombers are only marginally better, ranked 14th at an average of 63.7. The Suns lack of tackling (expect that to change under Solomon) could be capitalised upon by the fact by an Essendon side that has kicked more than 100 points in 10 games.

The Gold Coast coach is without many of his key position players but one duel that will remain is the Joe Daniher/Steven May match up. May has been one of the most consistent full backs in the competition and his match up with one of the Dons emerging leaders and Coleman Medal chance will be a highlight. At the other end of the ground, Hartley has to step up and nullify Wright, in Hurley’s absence.

Six changes may seem a lot but there is a good balance to the Dons ‘ins’ for this game. With respect to the other boys, it’s a good combination with the obvious highlight being the debut of Josh Begley.

Gold Coast will provide a definite challenge and with ‘Solly’ in charge for the second week they will be very competitive. They have genuine speed that can worry the Dons. They lost another two good players in Lyons and Lemmens but regain the run of Pearce Hanley.

Obviously it’s a must win game for the Bombers. Get the job done, recover Sunday and sit down and assess the scenarios that face the Dons in the final week.