Essendon fans have needed sturdy hearts these past few weeks with three victories in a row coming by a combined tally of just 21 points.

That might be the perfect preparation for this week. Because Friday night’s game against Adelaide on the road looms as another impossibly close contest, too, and yet another game in which a win is crucial to keep alive the prospect of finals football.

This is another classic 'eight-point' affair, the Crows sitting just ahead of Essendon in seventh place, with another two teams outside the eight breathing down the necks of both teams, just one win behind.

Essendon will go in with superior form, having now won five of its last six games, while Adelaide’s demolition of Gold Coast last week was its first victory for three weeks. But the Crows’ record against the Dons is good, their 12-point loss in round one last season Essendon’s first win against Adelaide since 2014.

The Bombers have stood up magnificently in recent weeks against a backdrop of continual injury to key players. Unfortunately, it will be a factor this week again, with Michael Hurley and Orazio Fantasia the latest casualties.

But the spirit the Dons have showed in this series of heart-stoppers gives them justified confidence of getting the job done again. And here’s five key questions which need to be answered for that result to be achieved.

1. How many injuries can we afford before the tipping point is reached?

It’s been a struggle putting a competitive side on the park at times these past few weeks, but no one can say the Bombers haven’t shown huge amounts of pluck to continue winning such tight battles with so many members of the best 22 missing.

Nonetheless, Hurley, Fantasia, Smith, Daniher and Bellchambers, with the ruckman’s back-up in Zac Clarke now also out with illness, is a fair whack of talent to have out of the line-up. Clearly, it leaves Shaun McKernan with much responsibility as the No.1 ruckman, though there will be more numbers at his feet this week at least via the return of skipper Dyson Heppell plus the highly anticipated debut of mid-season pick-up Will Snelling.

The forward setup has taken a sizeable hit, too, with Jayden Laverde being managed, Fantasia absent and McKernan having to spend far more time away from goals. That may lead Aaron Francis heading back down to the scoring end again, depending upon how well Adelaide’s trio of tall forwards are performing.

2. How will the backline cope without Michael Hurley?

It’s all hands on deck this week for the Bomber backline, particularly with Tom Lynch back into the side for Adelaide, reuniting with Taylor Walker and Josh Jenkins, a combination the Crows haven’t had the benefits of nearly enough this season.

Essendon doesn’t just lose a tall defender in Hurley, it also loses a valuable source of rebound. Extra responsibility in that regard may therefore fall to Marty Gleeson and Mason Redman. Michael Hartley obviously comes in to replace Hurley at least as a negator, Jenkins perhaps his most obvious match-up, with Cale Hooker taking Walker and the athletic assets of the returned Patrick Ambrose making him a perfect opponent for the hard-running talents of Lynch.


Patrick Ambrose is ready to resume after three weeks on the sidelines. (Photo: AFL Photos)

The Crows also have a number of midfielders capable of getting on the scoreboard when having a spell forward, such as Hugh Greenwood, and they will also have to be watched closely. That’s without mentioning Adelaide’s ground-level forwards, which we’ll do now.

3. Adam Saad kept Eddie Betts goalless last time the teams met. Does he get him again?

It’s not necessarily an easy question to answer, with two important factors to consider. One is whether Saad can play a defensive role without sacrificing too much of his attacking flair, so important in generating speedy ball movement for the Bombers. The other is just how big a threat Betts represents.

While he may have ended up with six goals in Adelaide’s thrashing of Gold Coast last week, the Suns presented a pretty easy kill for the Crows, making it harder to rate the quality of the goalsneak’s game. And it was a haul which followed a spell of ordinary form from Eddie, in which he kicked a total of just two goals over three games.

It’s not inconceivable that Adelaide’s other small forward in Lachlan Murphy could prove a bigger threat if Betts has a quiet one. In which case, Saad could potentially be freed up to run off his man a bit more with a chop-out on the defensive side of things from Gleeson or Redman.

4. Who does Dylan Clarke turn his attentions to this week?

The rapid emergence of the young midfielder as a quality tagger has been one of the big success stories of Essendon’s 2019. His CV now includes the scalps of Patrick Cripps, Jaeger O’Meara and last week, Ben Cunnington. All those three have been obvious targets for Clarke, but some weeks there could be a spread of candidates, and this game might be one.

For Adelaide, the midfield drivers are evenly spread, the Crouch brothers Matt and Brad both averaging more than 30 disposals per game, and co-captain Rory Sloane 25. It’s the latter, however, who can generally do more damage with the ball.

Sloane is also Adelaide’s leading contested possession and clearance winner, and has kicked more goals than either of the brothers, so he might well be Clarke’s first port of call, with either Crouch, or perhaps even Rory Atkins an option should they get off the leash, as against GWS recently, when Clarke spent time opposed to both Josh Kelly and Stephen Coniglio.


Dylan Clarke has his eyes on another big scalp on Friday night. (Photo: AFL Photos)

5. Essendon is 0-3 on the road this season. Is travel a problem?

It shouldn’t be, not after having gone 5-1 on interstate trips last year when a major bogey was not only broken but smashed. And taken in isolation, each of the three defeats this season has its own causes not related to jumping on a plane.

In round one against Greater Western Sydney, Essendon, after an indifferent pre-season series, was caught flat-footed by a highly rated opponent pumped up and ready to go.

The round eight defeat at the SCG against Sydney was by only five points. It could have gone either way and indeed might have had umpires paid what was technically a free kick against Dane Rampe for interfering with a goal post as David Myers prepared to kick after the siren.

And the round 14 loss to West Coast in Perth was as bad as the Bombers have played all season.

A constant in previous interstate losses has been a poor start, but against the Swans, Essendon trailed by only three points at quarter-time, and even against the Eagles, actually led at the first change.

Adelaide is the shortest road trip for Melbourne sides, and Essendon won its last appearance there against Port Adelaide in the final game of last season, reason enough to go into this clash against the Crows with confidence.

You can read more of Rohan Connolly’s work at his FOOTYOLOGY website.