It was in 1994 that the final eight became the preferred system to decide the premier side at the end of the home and away season. In those eight years, just one premier has finished lower than fourth place – Adelaide finished fifth when it won the flag in 1998. However, since 1994, on only three occasions has the winning Grand Final side also been minor premiers. So what can we glean from this? Given we are only looking at the past eight seasons probably not too much. Nonetheless, Essendon will be very keen to finish inside the top four to give itself the best chance of winning the 2002 premiership.

So how many of the remaining 10 games will Essendon need to win if it is to secure a top-four finish? Here is the breakdown of the past eight seasons and the points the fourth-placed team finished on.
1994: Geelong 52 (13 wins)
1995: Essendon 60 (14 wins, two draws)
1996: West Coast 60 (15 wins)
1997: Adelaide 52 (13 wins)
1998: Melbourne 56 (14 wins)
1999: Western Bulldogs 62 (15 wins, one draw)
2000: Kangaroos 56 (14 wins)
2001: Richmond 60 (15 wins)

Based on these numbers Essendon would need to win a minimum of six games to give itself any chance of finishing in fourth place. It is more likely that seven victories would be the number required – this would give it 14 wins and 56 points at the end of the home and away season. In such an even season this might be enough to grab fourth, provided Essendon’s percentage stands up.

Essendon has Melbourne (MCG), Western Bulldogs (Colonial Stadium), West Coast (Subiaco), Geelong (Colonial Stadium), Richmond (MCG), Brisbane (Colonial Stadium), Adelaide (Football Park), Collingwood (MCG), Fremantle (Colonial Stadium) and Carlton (MCG) to come.

Should Essendon defeat every side below it on the ladder it will win another six games for the season. This would probably see it finish in fifth place on the ladder at the end of the season. Some might say it isn’t a bad thing – fifth place would ensure Essendon avoided an opening finals match against Brisbane at the Gabba or Port Adelaide at Football Park.

But the prize for winning the first final, interstate or not, is tantalising – a preliminary final berth at the MCG. And a loss isn’t the end of your finals’ campaign – finish fifth and one slip ends your season. So the Bombers’ will be re-assessing their goals for the remainder of the year and you can be sure a top-four finish will be the aim.

The push for a top-four berth begins this Friday night when Essendon takes on Melbourne. It is the beginning of a critical five-week stretch for the Bombers.